Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
