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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still